Hurricane Gustav headed for the Gulf Coast
Everyone in my part of the country is busy today finalizing their preparations for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav. Landfall is projected to be roughly 24 hours from now, and for the moment the target is painted firmly on the Louisiana Gulf Coast. I’m located next door in Mississippi, about 70 miles inland. As a result, I’m expecting tropical storm force winds here, but nothing too damaging hopefully.
There is some slight good news for Louisiana as well, since the storm has not strengthened as much as had been predicted earlier. When Gustav hit western Cuba, the sustained winds were at 150 mph, a very strong Category 4 hurricane. (The highest rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale is category 5, which is a storm with winds of 155 mph or more.)
Early predictions had Gustav reaching peak intensity of 160 mph sustained winds. Even if the storm had subsequently weakened somewhat before making landfall, a storm of that magnitude would have pushed an immense amount of water ahead of it in the dangerous storm surge. But we haven’t seen the rapid intensification of Gustav in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest reconnaissance aircraft reports sustained winds at the center of Gustav at 115 mph, a category 3 storm. Further strengthening is of course possible, and even without it this is a powerful and dangerous storm.
Most of the country is under the impression that New Orleans suffered a direct hit from Hurricane Katrina 3 years ago in 2005. While the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans was unimaginably severe, the city was actually spared a direct hit from that storm which veered off to the East and made landfall along the Mississippi / Louisiana border. The seemingly minor change in landfall is actually difference of great importance, because it put New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain on the east side of the eye. That means that the prevailing winds were blowing into the Gulf of Mexico instead of into the city.
The forecast path of Gustav is further to the west, which puts the city potentially in a much more dangerous situation. Severe flooding of New Orleans is again a real possibility. Fortunately, even if this does occur it appears that the evacuation efforts were both better organized and better observed this time around. Let’s all hope that there will be no loss of life in this storm. The shameful performance of FEMA in the aftermath of Katrina was a lesson far too expensive in human life. Let’s hope that we never see that tragedy again.
I wish the best to those in the direct path of this storm. Batten down the hatches and be safe.
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